Home Price Deceleration Doesn’t Mean Home Price Depreciation

Home Price Deceleration Doesn’t Mean Home Price Depreciation

Home Price Deceleration Doesn’t Mean Home Price Depreciation | MyKCM

Experts in the real estate industry use a number of terms when they talk about what’s happening with home prices. And some of those words sound a bit similar but mean very different things. To help clarify what’s happening with home prices and where experts say they’re going, here’s a look at a few terms you may hear:

  • Appreciation is when home prices increase.
  • Depreciation is when home prices decrease.
  • Deceleration is when home prices continue to appreciate, but at a slower pace.

Where Home Prices Have Been in Recent Years

For starters, you’ve probably heard home prices have skyrocketed over the past two years, but homes were actually appreciating long before that. You might be surprised to learn that home prices have climbed for 122 consecutive months (see graph below):

Home Price Deceleration Doesn’t Mean Home Price Depreciation | MyKCM

As the graph shows, houses have gained value consistently over the past 10 consecutive years. But since 2020, the increase has been more dramatic as home price growth accelerated.

So why did home prices climb so much? It’s because there were more buyers than there were homes for sale. That imbalance put upward pressure on home prices because demand was high and supply was low.

Where Experts Say Home Prices Are Going

While this is helpful context, if you’re a buyer or seller in today’s market, you probably want to know what’s going to happen with home prices moving forward. Will they continue that same growth path or will home prices fall?

Experts are forecasting ongoing appreciation, just at a decelerated pace. In other words, prices will keep climbing, just not as fast as they have been. The graph below shows home price forecasts from seven industry leaders. None are calling for prices to fall (see graph below):

Home Price Deceleration Doesn’t Mean Home Price Depreciation | MyKCM

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, identifies a key reason why home prices won’t depreciate or drop:

In today’s housing market, demand for homes continues to outpace supply, which is keeping the pressure on house prices, so don’t expect house prices to decline.”

And although housing supply is starting to tick up, it’s not enough to make home prices decline because there’s still a gap between the number of homes available for sale and the volume of buyers looking to make a purchase.

Terry Loebs, Founder of the research firm Pulsenomics, notes that most real estate experts and economists anticipate home prices will continue rising. As he puts it:

“With home values at record-high levels and a vast majority of experts projecting additional price increases this year and beyond, home prices and expectations remain buoyant.”

Bottom Line

Experts forecast price deceleration, not depreciation. That means home prices will continue to rise, just at a slower pace. Let’s connect so you can get the full picture of what’s happening with home prices in our local market and to discuss your buying and selling goals.

March 2022 U.S. Housing Market Update

March 2022 Blog

More of the same was delivered in the U.S. housing market last month, with March 2022 being the hottest market on record. That’s according to Seattle-based Redfin Corp. (NASDAQ: RDFN), which found homes sold at their fastest pace, and for more above list price, than any other March on record. Nationally, the median home-sale price rose 6.2% in March, to an all-time high of $412,700.

Another month, another record-breaker. But there were some early signs of a potential letting up in the housing market later in March, and so far in April, although buyers — especially in hot Sun Belt markets — likely won’t feel many ripple effects for months to come.

SEE GRAPH of  ANNUAL CHANGE IN HOME VALUES

Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, said a slowdown has so far primarily been observed in U.S. coastal markets. But if a buyer is outpriced in a market like Los Angeles, they may instead try their luck in a more affordable market like Phoenix or Las Vegas, she added.

That’s bolstering a pandemic-increased migration out of higher-cost cities to more affordable Southeastern and Southwestern states, which have generally seen the largest gains in home-price appreciation since March 2020.

Nationally, typical home values grew 20.6% from March 2021 to March 2022, according to Zillow Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ZG) data. Among markets tracked by Redfin, the largest annual price increases were in Tampa, Florida, at 29%; Phoenix, at 27%; and McAllen, Texas, also at 27%. Both pending and actual home sales fell in March, at an annual rate of 6.1% and 8.1%, respectively. Those metrics dropped 3.6% and 3.7% from a month prior.

SEE GRAPH of HOMES SOLD, MARCH 2022

The spring months, the traditional kickoff to prime homebuying months, usually see an uptick in inventory. That’s not been the case so far in 2022.

Seasonally adjusted listing activity dipped in March, at a decrease of 1.1% from February and 6.2% from March 2021, Redfin found.

It’s possible some sellers aren’t motivated to list their homes if they refinanced their mortgages during the recent historic lows, Fairweather said. With mortgage rates spiking in recent weeks and months, that’s still expected to have a chilling effect on the overall housing market, but major metrics like the rate of home-price appreciation won’t be observed for months yet, as inventory remains constrained and buyer demand high.

What might start to burn off are the ultra-intense bidding wars that’ve been hallmarks of the pandemic housing market, or scenarios like waiving contingencies on a deal, she added. Higher mortgage rates are eroding how much a household can afford to pay for a home.

Twelve percent of homes listed on the market had a price drop during the four-week period ending April 3, up from 9% a year earlier and the highest share since early December, Redfin found more recently.

SEE GRAPH of 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE

This article by Ashley Fahey – Editor, The National Observer: Real Estate Edition, 04.18.22

Credit Scores for Homebuying

Minimum Credit Scores

Credit scores are crucial to the homebuying process. Not only does your FICO score determine if you can qualify for a loan in the first place, it will also have an impact on your mortgage terms. Your credit will affect getting the type of loan that will fit your family budget. You should also plan ahead in getting credit card debt paid down and correcting any inaccuracies in your credit report.
What credit score is needed to buy a house? Learn more at: https://bit.ly/CreditScore2Buy

Interest Rate Buy Down

An interest buy-down is a real estate financing option that Buyers can use to offer list price AND retain an affordable mortgage. By providing a credit to the Buyers, it allows Sellers to get their List Price from a qualified deal. It’s a win-win for both parties. If you have questions, please let me know and my favorite Lender will be happy to explain the details and determine if it will work for you!

Don’t waive your rights

When you’re purchasing a home, be sure to do a final walk-through before your signing. It’s IMPORTANT! Make sure all of the items included in your contract are still in the house, that there are no leftover personal items, and everything is clean, and in tip-top shape. Don’t lose your leverage by waiving your rights to this vital step in the process.